Lasting reading of the economic numbers suggests rates going higher for longer. I had thought a Macro trader going long TLT/TMF and short SPY would be the right trade for 2023. Neither side seems to be working yet. Besides raising cash and treasury notes, I don't see much opportunity out there.
You don't discuss MACRO trading or I haven't found it on your commentary. For example I believe we are closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and expect to see a real market bottom in Q1-23 as the Fed begins to pivot. $ will fall and anticipation of lower rates will ignite a strong rally in emerging markets. I want to build positions for that.
Lasting reading of the economic numbers suggests rates going higher for longer. I had thought a Macro trader going long TLT/TMF and short SPY would be the right trade for 2023. Neither side seems to be working yet. Besides raising cash and treasury notes, I don't see much opportunity out there.
You don't discuss MACRO trading or I haven't found it on your commentary. For example I believe we are closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and expect to see a real market bottom in Q1-23 as the Fed begins to pivot. $ will fall and anticipation of lower rates will ignite a strong rally in emerging markets. I want to build positions for that.
Good analysis-I like it.